{"id":196254,"date":"2026-08-06T11:32:35","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T07:32:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/?p=196254"},"modified":"2026-08-06T11:32:36","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T07:32:36","slug":"aliml%c9%99r-qlobal-demoqrafik-prosesl%c9%99rl%c9%99-bagli-t%c9%99dqiqat-apariblar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/?p=196254","title":{"rendered":"Aliml\u0259r qlobal demoqrafik prosesl\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u0259dqiqat apar\u0131blar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Qlobal miqyasda \u0259halinin 2200-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r t\u0259xmin\u0259n d\u00f6rd milyarda endirilm\u0259si t\u0259bii s\u0259rv\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259zyiqi azalda, iqlim d\u0259yi\u015fikliyini yava\u015flada v\u0259 v\u0259h\u015fi t\u0259bi\u0259tin b\u0259rpas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u015f\u0259rait yarada bil\u0259r. Aliml\u0259rin bu q\u0259na\u0259ti \u201cSustainable Development\u201d jurnal\u0131nda d\u0259rc olunmu\u015f t\u0259dqiqat\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 yer al\u0131b.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hakimiyyet.info.az<\/a>\u00a0xarici mediaya istinadla x\u0259b\u0259r verir ki, t\u0259dqiqat m\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259ri 1970-ci ild\u0259n 2020-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r qlobal m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131blar. Onlar \u0259hali art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0259kkiz \u0259traf m\u00fchit g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi – karbon qaz\u0131 tullant\u0131lar\u0131, enerji v\u0259 \u015firin su istehlak\u0131, mineral hasilat\u0131, plastik istehsal\u0131, pestisid istifad\u0259si, ekoloji iz, v\u0259h\u015fi t\u0259bi\u0259t populyasiyalar\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259 edibl\u0259r. Qeyd olunub ki, c\u0259mi yar\u0131m \u0259srd\u0259 \u0259halinin say\u0131 bir ne\u00e7\u0259 d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131b. 1970-2020-ci ill\u0259r aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya \u0259halisi ikiqatdan \u00e7ox, qlobal enerji istehlak\u0131 t\u0259xmin\u0259n \u00fc\u00e7qat, mineral hasilat\u0131 d\u00f6rdqat v\u0259 plastik istehsal\u0131 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 13 d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aliml\u0259r qeyd edibl\u0259r ki, bu g\u00fcn planetd\u0259ki h\u0259r bir insan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ild\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n yeddi ton mineral hasil olunur. Bu, bir ne\u00e7\u0259 avtomobilin \u00e7\u0259kisin\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259rdir. Adamba\u015f\u0131na t\u0259xmin\u0259n 60 kiloqram plastik istehsal olunur, halbuki 1970-ci ild\u0259 is\u0259 bu r\u0259q\u0259m 10 kiloqramdan az idi. Karbon qaz\u0131 tullant\u0131lar\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t f\u0259rqlidir. Bel\u0259 ki, 50 il \u0259rzind\u0259 \u00fcmumi emissiyalar ikiqatdan \u00e7ox artsa da, adamba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n illik g\u00f6st\u0259rici c\u00fczi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259, 3,87 tondan 4,09 tona q\u0259d\u0259r \u00e7oxal\u0131b. N\u00f6vb\u0259ti add\u0131m d\u00fcnyan\u0131n demoqrafik trayektoriyas\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131 olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0259dqiqat\u00e7\u0131lar g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yin iki f\u0259rqli vizyonunu n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7iribl\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fn \u0259lveri\u015fli ssenarid\u0259 qlobal \u0259hali 2100-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 6,9 milyarda d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 2200-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r 4,1 milyarda yax\u0131nla\u015facaq. Model\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, illik CO\u2082 emissiyalar\u0131 32 milyarddan 16 milyard tona, plastik istehsal\u0131 460 milyondan 54 milyon tona d\u00fc\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r v\u0259 t\u0259bii ekosisteml\u0259r t\u0259dric\u0259n b\u0259rpa olunmaq imkan\u0131na malik olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fks ssenarid\u0259 qlobal \u0259halinin bu \u0259srin sonuna q\u0259d\u0259r 11,4 milyarda, 2200-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r is\u0259 21,2 milyarda \u00e7ataca\u011f\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. 1970-ci ild\u0259n b\u0259ri m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunan tendensiya davam ed\u0259rs\u0259, illik plastik istehsal\u0131 13 milyard tonu ke\u00e7\u0259, enerji istehlak\u0131 m\u00f6vcud s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7 d\u0259f\u0259 arta v\u0259 v\u0259h\u015fi t\u0259bi\u0259t populyasiyalar\u0131 kritik h\u0259dd\u0259 yax\u0131nla\u015fa bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lakin m\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259r bu r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259ri d\u0259qiq proqnozlar kimi t\u0259qdim etmirl\u0259r. Model tarixi tendensiyalar\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirir v\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k texnoloji ir\u0259lil\u0259yi\u015fl\u0259ri, siyas\u0259t q\u0259rarlar\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 ya regional f\u0259rql\u0259ri tam \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 ala bilmir. Bunun \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259, m\u00fcxt\u0259lif demoqrafik se\u00e7iml\u0259rin n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rinin n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini n\u00fcmayi\u015f etdirm\u0259k m\u0259qs\u0259di da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0259dqiqat m\u0259cburi do\u011fum m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259rini m\u00fcdafi\u0259 etmir. T\u0259dqiqat\u00e7\u0131lar kontrasepsiya v\u0259 reproduktiv s\u0259hiyy\u0259y\u0259 daha geni\u015f \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f, q\u0131zlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259hsil v\u0259 qad\u0131nlar\u0131n ail\u0259l\u0259rinin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc t\u0259yin etm\u0259k qabiliyy\u0259tin\u0259 \u0259saslanan k\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc yana\u015fma t\u0259klif edirl\u0259r. M\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 istinad edil\u0259n m\u0259lumatlara g\u00f6r\u0259, d\u00fcnyada 200 milyondan \u00e7ox qad\u0131n h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 ehtiyac duyduqlar\u0131 ail\u0259 planla\u015fd\u0131rma xidm\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f imkan\u0131ndan m\u0259hrumdur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259r vur\u011fulay\u0131rlar ki, \u0259n varl\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r h\u0259dsiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7ox resurs t\u00fck\u0259dir: y\u00fcks\u0259k g\u0259lirli \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r orta hesabla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u0259lirli \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n adamba\u015f\u0131na 13 d\u0259f\u0259 \u00e7ox enerji istehlak edir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Qlobal miqyasda \u0259halinin 2200-c\u00fc il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r t\u0259xmin\u0259n d\u00f6rd milyarda endirilm\u0259si t\u0259bii s\u0259rv\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259zyiqi azalda, iqlim d\u0259yi\u015fikliyini yava\u015flada v\u0259 v\u0259h\u015fi t\u0259bi\u0259tin…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":196255,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,9,5],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196254"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=196254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":196256,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196254\/revisions\/196256"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/196255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=196254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=196254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hakimiyyet.info.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=196254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}